The Scapegoat Scam – The Atlantic

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Hungarian strongman Viktor Orbán, who lost the election on Sunday after 16 years in power, presented himself as a defender of Western civilization. But at best, his lofty rhetoric was code for bigotry and justification for the persecution of minorities; at worst, it was a ruse to screw up the Hungarians by persuading them to blame their problems on everyone but those responsible. Maybe both.

In the end, Hungarians decided that the main source of their problems was Orban himself. Perhaps Americans will one day come to a similar realization about Orbán’s big fan Donald Trump, who praised the former Hungarian leader before the election as a “fantastic man” who did a “fantastic job”.

Orbanism was, more or less, the model for what Trump and the Republican Party are trying to do in the United States. The Trump administration was so desperate to prevent Orbán’s defeat that it sent JD Vance to ask Hungarians to “stand up for Western civilization” and “for freedom, for truth and for the God of our fathers.” Few vice presidents have more consistently demeaned the office, to the point that most people hardly noticed that he praised Vance as a godly man who publicly condemned “race mixing”.

The Hungarians did not listen to Vance’s pleas. They swept opposition leader Peter Magyar into office with a majority large enough to reverse the system changes Orban introduced to stay in power. Those changes forced the otherwise ideologically divided opposition to unite behind the center-right Hungarians, a former member of Orbán’s party, because he was committed to the restoration of Hungarian democracy.

After 16 years of Orban, freedom and truth, not to mention material prosperity, are relatively scarce. Hungary’s media has been consolidated by pro-regime billionaires, the independence of universities has been curtailed, and the distribution of state benefits is based on loyalty to Orbán’s party, Fidesz – making people reluctant to criticize the government. All this meant that more direct tactics of state control, such as violence, were unnecessary.

Orban came to power out of resentment over the economic stagnation that developed under centre-left governments. But he leaves office with Hungarians facing falling wages and higher inflation than that experienced by similar countries. Orbán’s sectarianism and bigotry did not cause either a religious revival or a decline in fertility; of Hungary the population is decreasing and became more irreligiousas well as Orbán demonized LGBTQ people“Muslim invaders,” and Jews. In short, Orbánism didn’t make Hungarians richer, more Christian, or freer—unless you happened to be one of Orbán’s friends, in which case you might have gotten richer. As most Hungarians felt their economic circumstances were deteriorating, Orbán provided them with relatively powerless targets for hatred.

It was effective, but it didn’t last forever. Massive turnout for prohibited Last June’s Pride Parade, despite Orbán’s threat of “legal consequences” for all attendees, was seen as a sign that Orbán had lost his iron grip.

That Orbán’s carefully constructed system for maintaining power was ultimately overwhelmed by discontent over economic stagnation is a warning to his successors. The European Union withheld funding for Hungary in response to Orbán’s corruption – a central issue in the campaign. Those funds could now be released, which should help the Hungarian economy. Nevertheless, further stagnation could revive the authoritarian right and, as points out my colleague Anne Applebauma large part of the media and private sector economy in Hungary remains in the hands of Orbán’s allies.

Although Orban has been defeated, America is following the path he blazed. Many American conservativessurprised lately to find themselves on the defensive over culture war issues like marriage equality — wars they seemed to be winning just a few years ago — they openly admired Orbán’s model, even inviting him Conservative Political Action Conference to oppose “vigilance”. The Trump administration’s public communication is almost entirely scapegoating—blaming immigrants for low wages, housing shortages, and crime, while appealing to high-minded sentiments about “Western civilization.” The rhetoric of administration figures such as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and adviser Stephen Miller is only slightly paraphrased from the 19th centurylanguage used to justify colonialism and imperialism by positioning Europeans as successors the great civilizations of antiquity and their enemies as worthless”savages.”

The Trump administration was ignored by Congress in his distribution of funds, he made corporate mergers and government contracts it depends on Trump’s approvaland used state power to threaten freedom of speech and independence media outletsuniversities and political opponents. Trump sought to compromise independence of both federal judiciary and Federal Reserve. While Trump has not completely rolled back Congress’s appropriations authority, he has done enough to signal to powerful actors that they must bow to him to protect their interests. Trump tried his best to centralize power over elections in Orbán style, but he did largely thwarted by the US federal system.

Demonizing immigrants, racial and ethnic minorities, and LGBTQ people helped the GOP win elections, but, as in Hungary, economic prosperity was not widely shared. The economic policy of the Trump administration was like that redistribute income upwardstax cuts on the rich doc reducing health care for everyone else, even as costs rise due to the president’s tariffs and his disastrous war with Iran.

Traditional American conservatism once considered this kind of centralization a sure path to tyranny, the very reason to keep government small, to prevent it from dominating political, economic, and cultural life. That view is based on genuine insight, even if one is skeptical that anyone since Barry Goldwater actually believed it. Whatever sincere commitment to small government once animated the GOP did not survive its encounter with Trump. Opposition to equal rights, higher taxes for the wealthy and a more generous social safety net is all that remains.

Trumpism will not bring widespread prosperity any more than Orbanism, and keeping Americans together will require new enemies and panic to channel their frustrations elsewhere. It took the Hungarians more than 20 years to regain their freedom. How long will it take Americans?