Crisis of the Strait of Hormuz war in Iran: Food, fuel, climate impact on the world

These are policies in time of war, even if none of these countries is actually fighting a war. All, however, are caught in the blast radius of one who is fighting thousands of miles away. That’s because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the American-Israeli strikes on Iran that began on February 28, has detonated a crisis that reaches kitchens, classrooms, hospitals and camps in the Global South.

Twenty-one kilometers wide at its narrowest point, before the war, the Strait brought 20 percent of global oil, 20 percent of liquefied natural gas (LNG), a third of marine fertilizer, and almost half of the world’s sulfur exports. Shipments of goods have dropped by 95 percent. The Strait is, in effect, closed, and the consequences have fallen through the life of an esteemed. 3.2 billion people in countries currently subject to some form of fuel rationing, power cuts or energy restrictions.

Start with food. India matters most of its cooking gas through the Straitsand disruption struck almost immediately. Black market prices for a single cylinder of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) – the kind that powers a family kitchen here – have. almost tripled. Restaurants across the country have cut their menus; a 70-year-old Mumbai institution has cut its elaborate multicourse Ramadan offerings only four plates. A chain in the same city has stopped selling whole dosa, because the dish requires an open gas flame. A handwritten sign in a restaurant in Bengaluru it went viral: : “There will be no wheels for the gas cylinder crisis (due to the war between Iran and the United States).” Almost 10,000 restaurants in the state of Tamil Nadu only does the closure.

The fertilizer crisis has not yet had the same level of immediate effects, but the long-term impact seems dire. The Gulf produces about a third of the world’s urea exportsa key ingredient in fertilizer, and the shutdown comes at the worst time in the agricultural calendar — as farmers in the Northern Hemisphere need to apply fertilizer for spring planting.

Bangladesh has closed four of its five state urea plants. Nepal, which produces zero chemical fertilizers at home, has seen urea prices jump 40 percent ahead of its critical paddy season. In Brazil, Sugar mills are diverting their new harvest towards ethanol – which is more profitable, with oil above $100 a barrel – which could squeeze the global supply of sugar for months.

The World Food Program warns that 45 million more people in the world could be pushed into acute food insecurity – a 15 percent increase on current hunger levels. As if it is not enough, the closure of the strait has Vital UN food aid stuck in warehouses in Dubaicrippling the ability of relief agencies to get supplies where they are needed most.

Then there is the environmental fallout, which may be the most consequential long-term effect of the crisis.

The disruption of relatively clean LNG supplies has triggered a coal resurgence across Asia and beyond. Japan has planned elevation rules which required its oldest and dirtiest coal plants to operate at less than 50 percent capacity, which means more carbon dioxide and other pollution spewed into the air. South Korea deleted its own seasonal leader on coal power and delayed the retirement of three coal plants. Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia are all expanding coal operations. And in Europe, Germany is magazine if restarting mothballed coal plants.

Coal company – whose product is the the largest single contributor to climate change – reap the benefits. Australia Yancoal is in 40 percent since the beginning of the war, while the Pennsylvania-based Core Natural Resources is 30 percent. And once activated, coal plants can be politically difficult to close again, which risks a long-term carbon lock-in. And it’s not just about climate change. In India, the government has formally restaurants and hotels allowed to burn wood, dry crops and cow dung – heralding years of clean fuel progress and putting more lives at risk in the process in a single directive.

If you squint, there might be a possible silver lining to all this. In Nepal, more than 70 percent of sales of new cars are already electric. Electric rickshaws they are for sale in Pakistan. Chinese electric car manufacturer BYD is now projected overseas sales to be 15 percent higher than they were expected before the war. One energy analyst called this “Ukraine’s moment in Asia– a shock that could accelerate the shift to renewables as Russia’s invasion has pushed Europe towards wind and solar.

Accelerating the clean energy transition, however, will not put food on the table for billions of people in the Global South, and more coal and other dirty fuels in the short term will endanger more lives around the globe. The poor of the world can not fight the war of Iran, but I am sure that they suffer.

A version of this story appeared earlier Future perfect newsletter. Sign up here!