The first fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2028

As the race to harness quantum computing accelerates, governments are throwing their hats into the ring. The US Department of Energy is now aiming to build a fully functional, fault-tolerant quantum computer within the next three years.

Despite​​​​a lot of breathless headlines about the coming quantum revolution, modern machines remain far from being of practical use. It is widely expected that we will need much larger and more reliable quantum computers before they can solve real-world problems.

This is largely due to the fact that qubits are incredibly prone to errors, which means that future machines will need to run algorithms to detect and correct these errors faster than they occur. The overhead for these algorithms is estimated to be as high as 1,000 physical qubits to produce a single error-corrected “logical” qubit that can actually participate in the computation.

Given that most current devices have a few hundred physical qubits at best, more sober minds in the industry have suggested that we may be waiting another decade to see a practical, fault-tolerant quantum computer. But Dario Gil, the Energy Department’s undersecretary for science, announced last week that the agency believes it can reach that milestone in three years.

“By 2028, we will have delivered the first generation of fault-tolerant quantum computers capable of performing scientifically important quantum computations,” he told the Science Advisory Committee. in accordance with Science.

The agency doesn’t actually plan to build the system on its own; he wants quantum computing companies to offer an off-the-shelf solution. He outlined the performance benchmarks expected for the upcoming device, but left the details up to vendors. In particular, the agency did not choose a favorite among leading developments in quantum computing, such as superconducting qubits, trapped ions, or neutral atoms.

“You can build it however you want, as long as you achieve that goal and demonstrate scientific significance,” Gill explained.

The proposed system would likely be housed at one of the department’s national laboratories, where researchers could apply to use it free of charge, and projects would be selected on the basis of scientific merit.

The announcement is the latest example of the agency’s growing focus on quantum technology. In November 2025 $625 million announced upgrade its National Quantum Information Research Centers, which are designed to accelerate research in quantum computing, simulation, networkingand sensing.

However, the goal is undeniably ambitious. In recent years, significant progress has been made in error correction technology, which has renewed optimism in the industry. In particular, Google’s demonstration of its Willow chip in December 2024 proved that quantum error correction works in practice, not just in theory. But massive technical hurdles remain, primarily in increasing hardware.

“This is a very optimistic but worthwhile goal,” said Yale University physicist Stephen Girvin Science. Researchers are making “enormous progress” in fixing bugs, he said, but they’re still a long way from true fault tolerance.

Solving this problem has become an urgent priority for the industry, according to a recent report from quantum computing company Riverlane, but a severe talent shortage may limit how fast the field can move. It is estimated that there are only 600 to 700 professionals specializing in quantum error correction worldwide, but the industry will need up to 16,000 by the end of the decade. And error correction specialists can take up to 10 years to train.

It’s entirely possible that such a grand challenge from the Department of Energy will help attract the attention and funding needed to move the needle. But it’s an open question whether he can meet the incredibly bold timeline outlined this week.